In December 2020, the time when Delta variant was first identified in India, its threat was too remote to have a concern in the United States. But at present, the danger and horror of Delta variant through the US is hard to ignore. Within a few months, only the Delta variant spread to many countries, i.e., over 98 countries comprising Israel, the UK, Scotland, and the US. According to CDC, the ongoing week’s Delta variant now accounts for about 93 percent of all Covid cases.
Owing to the Delta variant, deaths and hospitalizations are increasing day by day in nearly all states, as data by CDC reveals. However, following seven-day average data by 22nd June, the cases dipped drastically to about 11000, and again it rose again speedily by 3rd August to about 85000. In May, however, Covid-19 cases in India peaked at over 400000 per day, and by August, it dropped to about 30000 per day.
Will Delta Variant Peak And Finish?
Also, on 26th July, a former Biden White House senior advisor tweeted that if Delta variant acted in the same way in the US as in India, it will for sure rise and fall quickly. This prediction by him seems to be true when as per records, it was noted that on 3rd August, cases in the UK dropped to about 7467 in comparison to that was in 19th July, i.e., 46800.
Predications regarding when Covid-19 cases will rise and fall
Among many other predictions regarding when the cases of delta variant decline, the most optimistic one are from former FDA director Scott Gottlieb. He predicted on 28th July that the cases will be expected to drop in two to three weeks for sure, i.e., from 11th August now.
Also, a prediction given by chief strategy officer Ali Mokdad says that ‘at present in the US, the cases will peak till mid-August, and then they will start declining. Also, in its recent prediction, he predicts deaths will peak for about 1000 daily till mid-September and then begin declining, and as can see on 3rd August, the daily death was 371 at an average.
According to the director of the Scripps Research, Eric Topol, ‘I hope that we get over this Delta variant, but sometimes I am too much optimistic.’
Also, a group of experts at Covid-19 scenario Modeling Hub say the Delta variant pandemic will increase all through summer and then show a fall, but it will show a peak in Mid-October.
On the other hand, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins center, Amesh Adalja says, I think it is still unclear when it will show a peak.’ As per his predictions, the decline in cases will be there when more people get infected and develop immunity.
Will vaccination make a difference?
Though the above predictions were based on different situations, experts agree that vaccinations will change all the predictions. Out of the total US population, 49.7 percent of people were fully vaccinated till 3rd August. Ricardo Franco alleged in his briefing that the Delta variant might mean the herd immunity threshold is very near to 90 percent. On the other hand, Mokdad University of Washington says that 64 percent of the US population will be immune to the Delta variant, including those who are already infected and vaccinated against the variant.
According to Justin Lessler, if enough people get vaccinated, it can stop the Delta variant from spreading more, however, the percentage is high. He says that ‘I am confident that if about 90 percent of the total population gets vaccinated, the cases will start falling and pandemic will recede.’